Climate Change Projections Using CMIP6 Models and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways: Advances and Implications for Hydrological Systems

Abstract

Climate change is increasingly influencing global and regional hydrological processes through alterations in temperature, precipitation, and extreme events. The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) represents the latest advancement in climate modeling, providing improved simulations of Earth system processes and future climate projections under shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). This chapter presents a comprehensive overview of CMIP6 models and SSP scenarios, with a focus on their application in hydrological assessments. It discusses projected changes in key climatic variables and their implications for streamflow, groundwater recharge, evapotranspiration, and water resource sustainability. The chapter also highlights methodological challenges, uncertainties, and future research directions, emphasizing the need for integrated modeling approaches in climate impact studies.